Many electric utility companies are abandoning coal and switching to cleaner-burning natural gas to power their generating plants.

But the switch may not be enough to turn the tide on carbon dioxide emissions.

The Energy Information Administration’s yearly outlook includes projections for only a minor decline in carbon emissions from the power sector’s carbon emissions through 2040.

The EIA said by 2050 carbon dioxide emissions will only be 4% below 2019 levels.

Critics of the outlook said the switch to natural gas may actually bring down carbon dioxide levels even further, but the projection’s models do not take into account important variables.

The projections do not factor in future coal plant retirements, state initiatives to reduce emissions, the real cost of battery energy storage or the increasing sale of electric vehicles.

The EIA said the outlook is a projection, not a prediction.